A Sign Of The Times: Is The Porsche 911 GT3 Market Poised To Dip?

A Look At The Market Decline Of Every Generation

I had to rely on a few sources to get an understanding of the current GT3 market. First up: Harald de Brujin, who runs the Fourwheel Trader channel on YouTube has come out with his detailed scrutiny of the current GT3 Market and it is quite an intriguing watch. In the insightful video, he offers an in-depth analysis of the GT3 market across the type-996, 997, 991, and 992 generations. While I have always found his videos quite comprehensive, I also appreciate him acknowledging that his numbers are unconfirmed and could be subject to chance. According to his overall overview, the GT3 market shows signs of dipping after stabilization. He has presented some interesting insights via several informative graphs and corresponding numbers in the video linked above. But here are some of the key findings:

• GT3 992.1 and 992.2: Prices have stabilized over the last 2 years after a drastic decrease in 2022. Since 2023, The 992 saw a moderate decrease in price from $2,70,000 to $2,60,000, which just accounts for 2%. Adding the numbers from the 992 Touring into the mix, the graph highlights a much steeper fall, followed by leveling out. As per the graph last year the price decrease accounted for 4.5%.

• GT3 991.1 and 991.2: During the pandemic, the prices of both models of the 991 generation saw a sharp increase, followed by a slight decline and eventual stabilization. The prices have more or less stayed at the same place since 2023, $140,000 - $145,000 for the 991.1 and $191,000 - $198,000 for the 991.2. There has been a slight increase in the prices of 991.2 cars in the last couple of months, which Harald attributes to the engine issues of the 991.1.

• GT3 997: The 997 market is small, especially for the 997.2, as sometimes only one or two examples are listed for sale. This makes sense since only 2,256 units of the GT3 997.2 were produced. As per Harald’s numbers prices of the 997.1 have been up by 8.8% and 13.5% for the 997.2. He does put the disclaimer out there that these numbers are statistically unconfirmed and that they could be the result of chance.

• GT3 996: Prices which have generally been stable from July 2023 to April 2024 decreased by 7.8%. which contributes to a loss of $13,500. This loss can be attributed to cars which have not been sold in the last three months. The average rate of discount applied to these cars is 9%, which is quite unusual as unsold cars are usually sold at 1-5% discounts. As per Harald’s calculations, 996 prices might be on the verge of a significant correction.

  

Overall, looking at the year-over-year changes across all four generations, the GT3 market is resilient with most models holding their value pretty well. I would advise readers to take all of this information and wait it out for a couple of months, before investing in a GT3, we could be on the brink of a price dip. Looking at carried-over inventory, which indicates cars that have not been sold within the first three months we can see that 50% of 996s have not sold within the three months. Comparatively 991s and 992s have been selling at quicker rates with only 20% and 30% respectively, of cars not selling during that same time frame.

Sellers also show high confidence levels when it comes to selling 991s and 992s, even when these cars take time to be sold, offering only 1% - 2% discounts on the price. Surprisingly discount rates of 996 increased sharply over the last few months to 9%. Could it be further signs of a weakening market?

Comparing the U.S. Market To The German Market

The German GT3 market is considerably more stable than the U.S. market, with an overall price decrease of only 1% compared to 4.1% in the United States. The weakening price trend of 996 in the United States hasn’t been witnessed in Germany, with 996 prices seeing an increase of 4.4%. Also comparing cars with similar mileage and age across both countries, he highlights the difference in 992 Price trends, which show that prices are significantly higher in America.

In conclusion, from the data collected by Harald, I can see that the GT3 market is behaving in a predictable, stable manner. Most generations lost between 2.5% - 4% last year. The 996 market is the only outlier since the severe 7.8% drop does not align with historic pricing trends. The numbers seen in Harald’s video, are indicative of short-term pricing trends, but in no way constitute any strong indications of how the market will change in the long run.

Looking at the data set for the 996.2 GT3 market on classic.com, reveals a slightly lower average price, over the past five years, but you will find that a lot more cars have been selling at a discount. In conclusion, if you are a GT3 996 owner, it would be beneficial to watch the market like a hawk to see if prices continue to dip. Till the next time, Harald drops a video and we can crunch some more numbers.